Submitted by Garrick Hileman06.16.2008
Yahoo's stock (Ticker Symbol: YHOO) has been on a roller coaster these past few months.
Most recently, following news that Yahoo! had broken off merger talks with MSFT the stock plummeted to the $23 range, Carl Ichan is moving to replace Yahoo!'s Board of Directors at the company’s shareholder meeting set for August 1.
Ichan’s slate of directors would be more open to selling the company. This outcome could provide a boost to Yahoo’s stock.
This is a prediction that Yahoo!’s stock price will reach $26 per share on or before August 2nd. The stock does not have to close at $26 per share; it can reach the $26 figure during intraday trading.
Suggested Odds50.00%
Prediction Close Date:08.02.2008 (EST)
Members will be rewarded with S$25,000.00 Standard Dollars for successfully submitting Suggestions which are popularly accepted by the community, vetted by The Industry Standard and added to the site.
This Suggestion has already been approved. Voting is suspended.
Comments
@Garrick, $26 seems like a target that is way too close to the current market pricing of $23.19 especially with a target duration of over 1 month. Did you intend for $26 as a target for market close or an intraday before August 2? With market volatility, the chance of an intraday 10% spike has a much higher probability to occur. That said, to make prediction interesting, it might be better to set a higher target (perhaps somewhere between $28 - $30).
Hi David,
I set the strike price at $26 because the general market consensus is that YHOO's stock price will continue to drift down following news that a) MSFT/YHOO deal is no longer on the table and b) Carl Ichan has expressed some positive views about the GOOG/YHOO deal. This suggest that Carl may not push his new slate of directors as aggressively at the August 1 shareholder meeting, which by my estimation would further reduce the probability of a near-term sale of YHOO.
On your question about whether the price needs to close at or simply trade to $26, I intended the latter and added a clarifying comment to the suggestion.
Thanks.
By the way, why are you referred to as an "Evil Genius"?
He's an evil genius because he's damned good at betting on predictions. It's a title that the system applies to him as he increases his rank. (Note: Look to see the rankings revamped in the next 4-6 weeks on thestandard.com.)
Well, for his sake let's just hope David doesn't work at Google...
@Eric, I am seeking to be an Industry Maker and be in Top Ten before end of July. I hope to break into the Prophet ranking before end of day today. BTW, what changes to the rankings expected in the revamped version?
@Garrick, Added you as connection on the Industry Standard. Sent you an invite to link up on LinkedIn as well. No, I do not work for Google (why would it be bad if I do?). I do wish that I am/was with Google and have loaded up on gadzillion pre-IPO shares :)
YHOO may have downward pressure post MSFT buyout offer. Looking at today's YHOO options, the highest call options volume hovers at $27.50. Put options are biased above $25. I don't see an immediate downward pressure at this time although it may drift lower if no additional positive development occurs for YHOO. That said, a 10% spike is still highly likely in the near term (before Aug 2).
Well, technically it would take an unlucky 13%, not a 10%, spike from the current price of $23 per share for the prediction to be accurate.
Yes, given YHOO's current beta that kind of intraday trading spike is within probabilistic reason. However, that trading logic fails to take into account the qualitative information that the market currently has and will continue to receive between now and the prediction expiration.
For example, the big fish like Weiner, Fayyad & Zawody http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/13/AR200806... get snatched up immediately, while the medium sized (and not as news media grabbing names) will continue to trickle out in the coming weeks.
The market will be absorbing this anecdotal news while YHOO will not make any major, bold moves to increase its stock price between now and the shareholder meeting. Too risky for the board.
That's part of the thinking behind the $26 strike price, which makes the prediction potentially attractive given the fact that YHOO's stock will almost certainly continue its decline in the near-term.
On "work for Google (why would it be bad if I do?)", it certainly wouldn't necessarily be bad to work for Google per se. However, I could imagine Google's HR -- in their vigilant effort to enforce the corporate motto -- having a problem with you moonlighting over at TIS as anything "evil". So glad to hear we won't be getting you into any trouble with that moniker. ;)
@Garrick, I see where you are coming from now. Departure of big fish will definitely put a damper on the stock price. Somehow I missed that memo. Grrrrr :(. Stock price is indeed a sensitive subject prior to board meeting. In summary, you got my "YES" vote.
Thanks, dude :)
And the hits just keep on coming...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121380526457284899.html?mod=2_1571_topbo...
Post new comment