Submitted by Shiv Bhandari05.05.2008
Rumors abound that LinkedIn will be acquired soon. LinkedIn's co-founder and board chairman Reid Hoffman says that he is open to waiting until "the right suitor makes a deal he can't refuse."
As some may recall, News Corp had reportedly been in negotiations since last fall to integrate LinkedIn's networks with its newspapers.
According to VentureBeat, "here’s why LinkedIn may be considered valuable to a suitor. Its user base doubled last year to more than 20 million active users worldwide, and it claims that 1.3 million new members are joining per month. The average user is 41 years old and makes around $110,000 — which the company claims helps it charge advertisers $75 per thousand impressions (which is exceptionally high). "
This prediction will come true if any company makes an official offer or announcement to acquire LinkedIn, or if LinkedIn gets $500mil+ of funding by a company (not VC funding, but an investment from another large company interested in owning or making a huge working partnership with LinkedIn) on or before July 31 2008.
An official announcement by LinkedIn and/or the suitor company need be reported by the mainstream media (MSM) on or before July 31 for this to be judged favorably. Bets will close on July 25, and judgment will occur on August 1st unless events occur earlier.
(Ed. Note: Some minor word edits have been made by The Standard to clarify the rules of this prediction)
Suggested Odds50.00%
Prediction Close Date:07.25.2008 (EST)
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Comments
Short time period without anything more significant than "anonymous sources".
LinkedIn and News Corps were rumored to be getting together last November. Recent news indicates more of a private placement of some portion of the stock, rather than an acquistition.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/06/AR200805...
http://community.zdnet.co.uk/blog/0,1000000567,10008050o-2000561249b,00....
http://venturebeat.com/2008/05/05/whats-happening-at-linkedin-is-it-gett...
A reasonable topic to cover, and certainly fitting with the rest of IS. I'd just like to see the timeframe dramatically lengthened and probably the acquirerer generalized (acquired by ANY suitor, etc.) before I think it's really a good prediction to play.
"This prediction will come true if any company officially makes an offer...." I think thats pretty general, unless I'm misunderstanding you completely. And as for the time frame, I don't want to make it, in my opinion, a sure bet. There ought to be a reasonable level of risk in a prediction, don't you think?
@Shiv, if you have anything more than the VentureBeat speculation, I'd probably agree with you. I'm not sure where you pulled your first paragraph. That being said, a new round of venture funding wouldn't qualify for this to come true and be judged favorably.
Now, what might make sense would be to open it up somewhat, to all "suitor" to include a company to buy a healthy portion of LinkedIn. Imagine an MS coming in with a pile of cash. I've heard they were actually looking at it at one point. In any case, I think you and @Bradley both make good points.
One thing I think we've all learned is how the timing really is key (and, the most difficult part of making a prediction come true).
I agree -- make it a little more risky!
"Now, what might make sense would be to open it up somewhat, to all "suitor" to include a company to buy a healthy portion of LinkedIn." Thats a great idea, what with LinkedIn's co-founder and board chairman Reid Hoffman open to waiting till "the right 'suitor' makes a deal he can't refuse" (cnet news). I think we're on the right track.
How about widening the scope to LinkedIn getting $500mil+ of funding by a company by August? That would open up 'suitor' to include additional funding and not just an acquisition.
I'm liking that. If you make the updates (click the Edit button near your name at the top) we'll probably roll this one up later today.
Done.
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