Submitted by Tom Pimental02.04.2008
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on July 1, 2008:
According to InfoWorld.com, the creators of the petition, "Today, we bid adieu to Windows XP. Despite an outpouring of demand -- including more than 210,000 people who signed InfoWorld's "Save XP" petition, Microsoft held firm and yesterday discontinued sales of XP in most cases (emphasis ours)." The community correctly predictied that Microsoft would hold fast, and that the petition would fail. Judged at S$0. -- The Industry Standard
Original Prediction:
Microsoft plans to end most sales of Windows XP on June 30, despite a deep reluctance by many businesses and individuals about moving to Vista. Over 60,000 people have signed a petition at SaveXP.com to prevent this from happening. Will Microsoft listen?
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 16 2008 | Current Consensus: | 9.98% | Total Bets: | 187 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 51.25% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 9.98% |
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The software machine is far too large to care about public concerns.
Microsoft announced today that (let's add "most probably") won't extend it for a second time... Maybe the answer will come before June :)
If they do change there mind it wont be because of a silly petition.
Microsoft is probably too invested in getting Windows 7 pushed out that the company would more than likely not extend XP but would get 7 on the market place sooner. Sort of like the old DOS, the even numbered releases were failures but the odd numbered seemed to be the more stable versions of the software.
Has an online petition ever worked? I guess that is a little irrelevant to this bet though.. it should read "Microsoft will change there decision and sell windows xp after June 30."
Edit: oops.. i didn't realize i already posted a similar comment, sorry.
This petition has no chance of changing the June 30th date. The only thing that would push this date out is if all of the major computer sellers lobbied for Microsoft to push the date out. Considering this has already happened and considered that those companies are preparing for the new June 30th date, there is no rational reason to push this date out again.
It's over:
http://blogs.zdnet.com/microsoft/?p=1312
It's not over, Garrick. I talked to the editors at InfoWorld about this today.
This has nothing to do with the petition. InfoWorld editors were expecting MS to make this move (it's a relatively small number of machines).
However, as Galen Gruman told me, "It’s the second crack in the wall, the first being the decision to keep XP available in the Third World for 10 more years. An extension on the XP end-of-sales date will be their next move, probably right before June 30." The extension of the end-of-sales date is what the petition is ultimately after.
That would show success, not the announcement today. It stays open until closing, or MS publicly changes their mind. I went to InfoWorld directly to make sure about this, as it is their petition.
This prediction was slated to close and be judged on June 16, not June 30, so there may not be enough time here if Galen is right.
"This prediction WAS slated to close" (emphasis mine)
Eric- Just to clarify, this prediction will be judged based on information available as of June 16th? If on June 29th MS suddenly declares that they were wrong, that XP is perfect and will be sold eternally, forever and ever more, this prediction would still be closed at 0%? Ie we're not waiting until the end of June, but rather only until the announced closing date of this prediction (June 16th)?
Or is June 16th the date that trading here stops and the prediction will be judged based on information through the 30th?
Ballmer: You want XP, we'll keep XP. "Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said the company could re-evaluate its plans to phase out Windows XP by June 30, if customers demand that it stick around. So far, they have not."
@ Bradley, I think the only fair way to judge this prediction would be to do so on June 30th, unless Microsoft announces something earlier. Right now MS is holding fast, but opened the door today.
June 30th is the stated death date for XP support in the US.
Errm, please define "succeed".
If the wish is for PC makers to continue to be able to ship pre-installed Windows XP past June 30, that's already been confirmed.
However, if the wish is for Microsoft to sell retail SKUs of XP, fuggedaboudid. Good luck finding any *today*, let alone in July.
@Eric Hill: I fear you are mistaken. Planned XP *support* continues for several years yet. We only just got rid of Windows 2000.
maybe could success thaks to the UMPC market
Microsoft Extends XP Deadline for Low-Cost PCs
http://www.nytimes.com/idg/IDG_852573C4006938804825745D0035EE3E.html?par...
This is enough for close the bids???
@Tomás, et al, I posed this very question to Eric Knorr, Editor-in-Chief of InfoWorld as soon as this recent news broke.
Since they created the petition, I figure it is up to them to judge if it has been a success or not. While wildly successful as a petition, Eric said, "Heheh. You keep asking. This applies to low-end systems running XP Home only. MS did the same with low-end laptops in April. Some vendors now also have a downgrade license, where you buy Vista and get an instant downgrade to XP, although Microsoft hasn't said how long it will let that scheme go on. Calling it victory is pushing it too far. We're in the concession zone still."
An ability to downgrade Vista after your purchase looks like the ultimate solution. Both parties get what they asked for. The price is still a concern, though. If XP was sold as a standalone product, it would probably cost a fraction of what Vista (with a downgrade) does. I guess, that's the premium that you'll have to pay to use the vintage OS.
The petition still has 13 days to go. We should have moved the Bets Close date closer to the petition expiry date.
Personly I think a class action sute would be a good idea, Vista was foisted off on us becuss 'current' machines are sold with vista, I couldn't get XP, and the os had been pulled off the shelves.I was told I had to get vista. vista sucks in several ways, however compatably is the biggest suck alomg with constant explorer crashes
please for god sake when will you annoucnce the results
i knew it!!
http://www.informationweek.com/news/windows/operatingsystems/showArticle...
so, the SaveXP.com petition succeeded.
our prediction was right.
We won!
Reading the SaveXP petition. It specifically focused on the petition MSFT to continue OEM and retail sales of XP. The article (posted by Tomas) confirms the end of retail and OEM sales (after June 30). The only consolation is the comment from Veghte "But customers who still need Windows XP will be able to get it". That was NOT part of the intended outcome of the SaveXP petition.
IMHO, this prediction should be judged UNFAVORABLY.
@David the windows xp sales will continue after the 30 of June, and not only in UMPCs. But, as Eric Hill sayd, the petition success will be determined by InfoWorld
Well isn't Microsoft philosophy..
Drain money from the people foolish and desperate enough to use their products...THEN screw them!
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