Submitted by The Standard04.25.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on July 1, 2008:
As the community correctly predicted, the 3G Blackberry was not available for purchase on the AT&T Wireless online store by the end of June, 2008. Judged at S$100. -- The Industry Standard
Original Prediction:
As reported by Fortune, the "iPhone killer" 3G Blackberry could have a delayed launch from June to August.
"Research in Motion (RIMM) is facing a delay with the introduction of its new hotly anticipated 3G BlackBerry phone for AT&T (ATT ). The release of the phone, apparently named Meteor, has been pushed to as late as August, from the planned June launch, say people close to the companies."
As noted by Henry Blodget over at Silicon Alley Insider, "Fortune said the delay has been attributed to call quality, but speculates that this is just a cover story: AT&T doesn't want to hurt the launch of the 3G iPhone." (See related Prediction.)
This is a prediction that the 3G Blackberry will not launch in June, 2008. Bets will be halted on June 24, unless the phone is released earlier. Judgment will be made on July 1st, 2008.
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jun 24 2008 | Current Consensus: | 92.06% | Total Bets: | 33 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 92.06% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 43.78% |
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Comments
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/05/12/rims-blackberry-bold-beats-ap...
Can we get some definitions?
What constitutes a "launch"? Actually shipping product, or an unveiling such as todays?
If the launch comes in May, does this prediction close at 0% (certainly not a delay) or 100% (didn't launch in June 2008)?
Shipping the product constitutes the launch of that product. As for the Bold, which you link to, "RIM said that it expects the Bold to be shipping worldwide this summer." The 3G Blackberry was supposed to be launched in June. This is a prediction that it will not. And, to your point, the Bold is now scheduled for "the summer," which would seem to indicate that August could be a viable time frame. I'm not surprised to see this prediction tank.
Further, announcing a product does not imply a launch. How, then, could one have a delayed launch? If company X announced the upcoming launch of product Y on Z date, and they missed Z date, that would be a delayed launch. Agree?
Sounds good to me. Just wanted it clearer.
So "launch" means ship. If they start shipping in the next 3 weeks (ie still in May) do we close at 0% or 100%?
If they actually ship (launch) the 3G product in May, then I would assume we'd be closing this at 0%, and closing it a good month early.
k, thanks.
ATT will likely NOT launch their two hot 3G phones in the same month.
If 3G iPhone launches in June, BB-Bold gets pushed out - likely to late July or August.
I am curious how that got decided. The BB and the iPhone should both be good sellers and some competition would have been ok for the public.
I am wondering what the impact will be where the iPhone gets shipped and then a lrge amount of BB comes on line. What will the performance impact be on the iPhone users?
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