Submitted by Bradley Baker08.16.2008
Thunderdome
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Betting closes on Dec 22 2008
Apple has recently filed a lawsuit against Psystar, the makers of a Mac clone.
In addition to damages and penalties, including all profits Psystar might have made, Apple is also demanding a recall of all Psystar machines.
If Apple wins it's pretty much a done deal that Psystar would be forced into bankrupcy. Even before that stage it's questionable whether Psystar will be able to afford to mount a legal defense.
This prediction is that Psystar will be out of business by the end of 2008, through whatever means. Eventual outcome of the lawsuit -- which is quite likely to take years if Psystar can keep going -- is irrelevant to judgment.
Note that Psystar's website has been intermittant ever since April when they first announced the release of OpenMac (now OpenComputer). Judgment may require some discretion from TIS moderators. An announcement from Psystar that they are shutting down operations will automatically be considered sufficient.
If Psystar merely disappears without public comment then mass media accounts should be used in helping determine whether or not a judgment should be entered. If Psystar announces prior to the end of the year a date for closing the doors that doesn't take place until 2009 this prediction will still be judged a success.
Current Community Consensus 10%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 22 2008 | Current Consensus: | 10.43% | Total Bets: | 16 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 48.75% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 10.43% |
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Pystar countersues (http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2008/08/27/psystar-finally-ans...)
As far as this prediction is concerned, looks like an unfavorable judgment. Apple and Psystar just agreed to an alternative dispute resolution which would past prediction judgment date.
From http://www.macobserver.com/article/2008/10/16.9.shtml
In the Apple vs. Psystar case in the Northern District of California, both parties have agreed to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR). Which party asked for this cannot be known at this point, or even if they did. Sometimes a judge will strongly urge the parties to enter into voluntary ADR.
An attorney, who is following the case and wishes to remain anonymous, told TMO on Thursday that he discovered that the ADR process has been initiated and both parties have agreed to it.
"ADR is a private process whereby both parties can meet and work out a resolution in lieu of going to trial," he said. "Exactly why this has happened is not known at this point."
Under ADR, the parties "(1) Meet in non-binding arbitration (essentially the arbitrator judges the parties' case by hearing their argument on the law and facts but has no authority to impose a settlement or adjudicate the matter); (2) Early Neutral Evaluation (ENE) is where an expert has the parties submit their statement of the facts and the law and provides each of them with his evaluation of the merits of their case (this evaluation of the each party's case by a neutral expert facilitates settlement); and (3) Mediation is where the mediator get between the parties and simply tries to help the parties reach a negotiated settlement," he wrote.
This process will still require several months, but the outcome could result in a negotiated settlement, the terms of which could also remain secret.
Some notable recent events appear to relate to the case. Apple recently received a patent on the Mac OS X dock and President Bush recently signed into law a strengthened copyright bill that steepens penalties for intellectual property infringement. However, it's not possible to know, at this point, why the ADR was initiated, and the outcome, held private, may never be known to outsiders.
Looks like Alternative Dispute Resolution is now off the table. Both Psystar and Apple are now pursuing a lengthy court trial that begins Nov 9, 2009. Unless Psystar runs into liquidity issues, this prediction is most likely to be judged unfavorably.
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/11/03/apple_psystar_ask_court_to...
http://www.macnn.com/articles/08/11/03/apple.psystar.set.date/
http://feeds.macuser.com/click.phdo?i=dab6d8d5964a402d8e9525ebaa94d01d
http://www.informationweek.com/news/management/legal/showArticle.jhtml?a...
http://macblips.com/story/apple_psystar_seek_trial_on_nov_9_2009_apple_c...
Psystar counterclaim was thrown out today for resubmission on Dec 18. it looks like Psystar will lose the suit. It is also likely that Psystar will appeal the ruling which provides for a short leash extending beyond end of 2008.
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/11/18/judge_grants_apples_motion...
I saw that. This would seem to put a lot more pressure on Psystar surviving, wouldn't you think?
Not sure if it will meet the rules of this prediction, but (like the Jerry Yang prediction which closed earlier than the event outcome) may ultimately come true.
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