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Obama to be the next US president?

Eric Hill
Comments 30
This prediction is closed and has been judged.
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Judgment: President Elect Barack Obama has been elected the 44th president of the United States of America in convincing fashion, which the community correctly predicted.  -- The Industry Standard

Original prediction:

The daily polls from Gallup reveal that the presidential candidates are currently in a dead-heat.   As of this writing, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama are separated by 2 percentage points in the polls, with a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. 

Since the Democratic convention, Obama has seen his 8 point boost evaporate in short order as the media focuses on McCain’s surprise VP pick, Governor Sarah Palin.

With less than two months before the election, almost any news cycle could be poised to swing the election one way or the other.  The US electorate seems more engaged than ever before, with more TV viewers tuning in to Barack Obama and John McCain’s convention speeches than the Academy Awards, or any “American Idol” finale.

As broadcast TV tries to regain its stature as a first-source medium for political events, the first presidential debate fast approaches on September 26, 2008, with two more to follow, and one debate for the VP candidates. 

In the midst of the wars in Iraq and Afganistan, and troubling events in the financial sectors, Senators Obama (1, 2) and McCain (1, 2) have both attempted to explain their policy views on technology.  The question remains, whose policies will reign over Silicon Valley in 2009 and beyond? 

Prediction: Will Senator Barack Obama become the 44th president of the United States of America? Bets will close on November 3, 2008.  Judgment will occur when one of the candidates publicly concedes defeat.

Let the community decide.  Place your bets! 

(Photo credit: Associated Press)

Price History

Prediction Statistics

Betting Closes:Nov 03 2008Current Consensus:96.61%Total Bets:205
Today's Change:
0%
Life Time High:96.61%
Life Time Low:40.13%

Comments

I am just waiting for the puns, jokes, banter and mud-slinging to happen in the comment thread. Here is a start ...

Tina Fey impersonation of Sarah Palin on last week Saturday Night Live was on-the-money and was downright hilarious(http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/palin-hillary-open/65...)! Did you hear that John McCain helped developed Blackberry (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gcHFFZH949ykjRhXQHjqgLWe6F8Q)?

For a few more chuckles, check out http://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb-staff/2008/09/16/newsbusted-2-01


The Palin/Clinton sketch on SNL was hilarious. I presume we'll all be watching many more weeks of that to come.


Obama is going to loose! We've already rigged the VoteCount 2.1 software!

Sorry

http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com


My own personal calculations show Obama winning with a tiny 3 point win. It takes 170 electoral votes, and I've got him pegged at 173 right now. That assumes he takes Pennsylvania and Michigan, and loses Ohio and Florida. It's razor thin, and can really go any way. Obama will likely win the popular vote by a significant margin, but coastal states won't push this election even though they have the population. The electoral college is a lot harder to gauge.


@Eric, I think you meant to say 270 electoral votes. There are a total of 538 total electoral votes for General Election for the Presidency.


Sorry, yeah - I meant 270. Typo.


Check out this scenario (improbable but not impossible) where your votes ultimately do not count and comment on your thoughts ....
http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/an-electoral-college-doomsday/


I read that. Getting my passport ready. :S


According to most polls and news article ... McCain "won" round 1 of the Presidential Debate.
http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/26/mccain-won...


Totally depends on where you look, and how you parse it.

The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote that McCain won on foreign policy while Obama won on the economy.

LA Times said it was too close to call.

Time Magazine's Joe Klein felt Obama barely won.

Conservative George Will believed Obama had a "leg up".

A CBS poll found Obama ahead with uncommitted voters.

And, a CNN poll found Obama winning overall. So, it's really all over the map and totally depends on where the report/poll is coming from. Republicans all feel their man won, as do Democrats. Something interesting to note, however: so-called Independents favored Obama's performance, 61-39.

All I know is that I found the debate refreshing in the sense that both men acted and spoke like well-informed adults. The attack ads, cable "news" programs and continuous propaganda machine becomes incredibly tiring and demeaning.


The payday loan industry has recently been under siege by politicians from every party. The governors of Oregon, North Carolina, and Georgia completely banned the payday loan industry in their states. However, the decision to eliminate payday loans is not in the best interest of the people who live in those states. For example, in the state of Georgia, bankruptcy filings, bounced checks, and home foreclosures all suddenly increased after payday loans were banned. Although it’s been proven that the number of bankruptcy, bad checks, and foreclosures rise when cash advances are prohibited within a state, many governors of other states are attempting to pass the same anti-payday loan legislation. High level politicians are hoping to eliminate payday loans from the entire United States. If this actually happens, it is quite plausible that there will be even more unemployment, debt, bankruptcy, and foreclosures in our already struggling economy.

Post Courtesy of Personal Money Store
Professional Blogging Team
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In Feb 2007 it was reported that:
"Senator Barack Obama’s ancestors link him to U.S. Presidents George Washington, James Madison, Harry Truman and Jimmy Carter, according to the founder of the Family Forest® Project. "

http://www.familyforest.com/PR_Barack_Obama.html

After this story, others came out about Obama being Presidential material...now people are actually believing he could be the next President.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=54047
http://familyforest.wordpress.com/2007/10/18/another-barack-obama-cousin...

Anyone using the Family Forest® can visually explore some of Senator Obama's generation-by-generation ancestral pathways leading to some of his ancestors who were Magna Charta Sureties, Kings, and Saints.



The payday loan industry has been the key target for corrupt politicians, from all sides, seeking an increase in voter support at the expense of what’s best for the general public. Governors of several states including, Georgia, North Carolina, and Oregon completely drove payday loan businesses out of their states. The negative effects of driving out payday loan companies from these states, appears to have not been the best idea for its’ citizens. For instance, in Georgia, the bankruptcy filings, bounced checks and foreclosures all grew overwhelmingly after the cash advance option was taken away from them. In spite of this downbeat information, following the closure of payday loans in these states, several other governors continue to try and follow suit. Leading national politicians, such as presidential hopeful Barack Obama, are now making it their mission to eliminate the industry completely once and for all. Should such efforts be judged successful, the possibility is very real for increased unemployment rates, more debt, more foreclosures and an even more crippled economy.

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Professional Blogging Team
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Home: http://personalmoneystore.com/NoFaxPaydayLoans.html
Blog: http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/


Nonsense. It is very well established that states with usury laws have lower incidence of bankruptcy, bounced checks, and home foreclosures. "Payday" loans are just a form of usury, often with interest rates (including "fees") that total well above one hundred percent.

The recent short-term rise in those statistics is not due to passing a usury statute. It is just a short-term coincidence. The Personal Money Store (a well known usury lender) is simply trying to take advantage.


David Kernell, the 20-year-old son of Democratic Representative Mike Kernell of Tennessee, got popped. According to CNN (“Democratic lawmaker's son indicted in Palin hacking”), he reset the password and gained access to GOP VP candidate Palin's personal E-mail account. It is alleged that he read the contents, took a screenshot of her E-mail directory and obtained other personal information. The information that may have been compromised includes E-mail addresses and pictures of family members, one or more cell phone numbers of family members, family birthdates and more from Palin's address book. Interestingly, after turning himself in, David Kernell pleaded not guilty. He pleaded not guilty despite the fact that he (allegedly) took the information he hacked from Palin's personal account and posted it to a public Web site. Not only that, but he posted the new password he’d created, which would enable others to easily access Palin's E-mail themselves and view any of the contents. As a result, Kernell Junior may be subject to the heat of a five-year prison term, $250,000 fine and three years of supervised release. That’s enough to turn anybody into a fluffy white piece of popcorn. At the maximum of $1,500 per loan, that bail would require about 167 individual payday loans to free that fluffy little popped grain treat from being overcooked by cellmates.
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Professional Blogging Team
Feed Back: 1-866-641-3406
Home: http://personalmoneystore.com/NoFaxPaydayLoans.html
Blog: http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/


@Payday, not sure what your comment has to do with this prediction, but since you bring up Mrs. Palin, "Alaska Inquiry Concludes Palin Abused Powers" -- Maybe she can share a cell with Mr. Kernell.


Oh god please do not let oh bamma win the election. pleeeeese.


oh god no obama - or we'll all have to move to Canada for 4 years. His pastor hates America
and it good obomba too long a time to denounce is pastor. obama can talk - so he's an orator
not a president of the United States of America.


If obama is president we need to move to canada?? Get it right bro, if McCain is president and we have 4 more years of republican government we need to move to canada. Look at our economy now and compare it 8-16 years ago... Was the best economy the u.s. had seen in decades. So tell me honestly that you want another republican and his dimwitted sidekick in office.


And another thing... McCain will most likely not even live through one term as president, which would in turn leave palin.. i don't think i need to say anything else.


Chris
1. The economy started to tank while Clinton was still in office.
The economy of the 90's was not to president Clinton's credit. The boom was inevitable, no matter who was president. Mickey Mouse could have been president and we would have had the boom. It was the Tech Revolution, similar to the industrial revolution. And just as the boom was inevitable, so was the bust.
2. Everyone seems to forget the influence of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on our country. It was devastating in terms of loss of human life but also in terms of the effect on the economy. The solution was to drop interest rates to such a low level so as to kick start the economy.
3. Greenspan (originally from Clinton's era) raised the interest rates far too quickly. He would raise it a quarter point and if there was no immediate improvement that he considered sufficient, he raised them again. This attitude was straight from the 1990's, an instant gratification "Day Trader" mentatlity that did not have the patience to let things work.
4. The finacial collapse is clearly because of the policies of Democrats. Starting with Jimmy Carter there was a push to give loans to people who did not have credit scores that normally would allow them to purchase a home. Therefore the subprime market was created. It was greatly expanded in the 1990s and forced down the throats of banks by Janet "Jackboot" Reno.
5. The drop in interest rates after 9/11 combined with the sub-prime market created by Democrats greatly increased the number of sub-prime mortgages, most of which were A.R.M.s. When Greenspan raised rates quickly, the rates on those mortgages, and therefore the payments, greatly increased also. Thus many people went into foreclosure.
6. Fannie and Freddie's demise was because of mis-managment by DEMOCRATS!!! And Fannie and Freddie's demise was the first domino to fall in the global crisis.

Chris, we need to have an informed electorate. Please do the research and get informed!


@Steven,

Your completely partisan view of the last 20+ years is so tiring. It's exactly what is breaking the U.S. apart. To call "research" by watching and listening to Fox news and Rush Limbaugh, you will always be an old, bitter, cynical man.

I find it humorous how you leapfrog from Carter to Clinton to find your sources for the world's ails. Deregulation policies be damned. Alan Greenspan was first appointed Fed chairman by saintly President Ronald Reagan in August 1987. If you want to blame Greenspan, you'll need to go across a lot more presidents than simply the Democratic one you don't like.

The bills signed into law that some want to blame Clinton for are, indeed, a part of the problem. Don't forget that they were written/approved by Phil Gramm (R) of Texas. Wikipedia: "Later in his Senate career, Gramm spearheaded efforts to pass banking deregulation laws, including the landmark Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999, which removed Depression-era laws separating banking, insurance and brokerage activities. Between 1995 and 2000, Gramm was the chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs." Oh, and Gramm is one of McCain's chief economic advisers.

So, please. Do more than simply repeat GOP talking points and claim you've done your research. Grow up.


Keith,
You really did not address any of the issues that I brought up, except for Greenspan being appointed under Reagan.

The point was that the sudden drop of interest rates after 9/11, along with lax rules for sub-prime mortgages, greatly increased the number of sub-prime mortgages. Then the quick rate increases helped cause this to crash. If the market had not been so lopsided with too many sub-prime mortgages the effect would not have been any where near this disastrous.

Liberals talk about how deregulation caused the problems but they (and you) can't actually make a direct connection. Just an overgeneralization that it is the fault of deregulation. You need to talk with some substance not just some nebulous idea that deregulation is the problem but not presenting any evidence that ties the crash to deregulation.

You criticize Rush Limbaugh but the reality is he and other conservative talk radio host bring up well documented facts, not just empty rhetoric.
Go to the Mark Levin site and look at the pages and pages of documentation he has.

http://marklevinshow.com/section/notes-of-interest/


Contrary to all the hype, latest AP Presidential Poll on 10/22 shows all even with no statistically significant lead.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93VM4PO0&show_article=1
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309546869309178



From http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."


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