Submitted by The Standard03.17.2008
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This prediction is closed and is in the process of being judged.
Yahoo's forthcoming Flickr video announcement has been widely reported after a few comments Stewart Butterfield made at Sunday's birthday party.
CNET's Josh Lowensohn thinks that the service, now rumored for over a year, stands more than a fighting chance against. . .well, too many incumbants to count.
YouTube has an approximately 34% market share as of March 14, 2008, according to comScore, whereas Yahoo! video only has 3.2%. It has been reported that Flickr Video will not replace Yahoo Video, unlike Yahoo Photos, which was folded into Flickr.
This is a prediction that must meet two (i.e. both) condiitons in order to be judged favorably:
1.) Flickr video (or equivalant service regardless of name) equals or eclipses Yahoo! Video's 3.2% market share within its first 6 months of service
2.) The combined online video market share of Yahoo! sites (all offerings i.e. Flickr video + Yahoo! Video) exceeds 6.4% within 6 months of the Flickr video launch
A judgement on this prediction will be made using comScore metrics. Only if the neccessary metrics are not available via comScore wil the editors look elesewhere for the requisite numbers, in which case they will provide their sources when making the judgement. If Flickr video does not launch by May 1, as expected, then the expiration date of this prediction will be revised accordingly.
Current Community Consensus 6%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Nov 03 2008 | Current Consensus: | 6.01% | Total Bets: | 49 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 52.50% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 5.73% |
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This isn't going to happen. In April, Google sites has increased market share to 37% while Yahoo sites (inclusive of Flickr and Yahoo! Video) continues to linger at 3.2%. Check out comScore results
comScore results for May 2008
Google down to 34.8%, Yahoo! down to 2.9%. Fox Interactive Media (6.4%, up from 5.1%) is the big winner this (most recent available) month.
comScore results for July 2008
Google up to 44.1%
Fox Interactive Media down to 3.9%
Yahoo down to 2.4%
There is practically 0% chance that Yahoo can meet either criteria for favorable judgment.
Yahoo had a surge of 56% in month of September (according to Nielsen Online metric). Fox down by -20%+. Google up by another 12%. Despite this surge, I still don't think it cracked the 4% mark.
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