Dow Jones falls below 7500 by March 2009?

Judgment made on Feb. 19, 2009: Okay, that was fast. The Dow not only passed the Nov. 20 low mark, it dropped 1.2% in one day to close at 7465.95 on Feb. 19.

Original prediction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is dangerously close to falling below its Nov. 20 bottom. The Dow closed at 7552.29 on Nov. 20, 2008, the lowest point since the global economic crisis started unraveling with the fall of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15.

Despite the passage of President Obama's stimulus package over Presidents Day weekend, the Dow remains below 8000. The Dow closed at 7555.63 on Feb. 18 and is steadily dropping.

Prediction: The Dow closes below 7500 by March 1, 2009. The last trading day that will count for judgment is Feb. 27.