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Ian Lamont

Bad signs for Blu-ray: Free discs, cheap players, and declining market share

Ian Lamont09.22.2008
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In this month's issue of Wired magazine, Sony and Microsoft splurged on a full-page insert that includes a Blu-ray DVD. The disc is the "director's cut" of Coma, a seven-part noir-esque crime thriller. On the back of the insert, there's a plug for Vista and the Sony Vaio. I don't know how much this is costing Sony and its partners, but it can't be cheap -- Wired's paid circulation is 706,494, and this press release indicates that other magazines may be involved.

Have Sony and its Blu-ray backers come to this -- using a marketing tactic reminiscent of 90s-style software and music giveaways in an attempt to boost Blu-ray? Remember, this was a technology that people were supposed to rush out and buy after Blu-ray won the HD format battle with HD-DVD. Sony president Ryoji Chubachi even expressed a goal back in April that Blu-ray would grow to a global market share of 50% in 2008. There's already strong evidence that Blu-ray's market share is declining, at least in the U.S., according to recent data from Nielsen VideoScan published on EngadgetHD.

In The Industry Standard's prediction market, there's a prediction that Blu-ray's market share will not break 50% by the end of this year. That's a no-brainer. Our readers are largely behind this prediction, with community consensus currently standing at 82%. Another prediction that Blu-ray player prices would drop below $250 by Thanksgiving was judged three months early after one model hit $249.47 (with a rebate). How low can prices go for the players? This morning, another reader pointed us to news that models by Sony and Samsung are selling for less than $200, including shipping. The Engadget author calls the Sony BDP-S300 deal "unquestionably delectable." Sony better hope that mainstream consumers feel the same way, or the company risks another weak Christmas for Blu-ray this year -- and losing out in an even bigger way when consumers begin to turn to the Internet for their HD content.

More news, commentary, and predictions from The Industry Standard:


Comments

Its not the price of the players, but the media that needs to get back down to earth. $20-30 for a movie? Fuck off.


Both prior posters have a point: it's all about economics. When a blu-ray player costs the same (or near) to what a DVD player does (and had better play regular DVD format as well); when the media comes into the same price range -- this is when the consumer will adopt the tech.

Quite simply put, the consumer (and I include myself here) doesn't see enough value for money with the new format. Most people can't even tell the difference between DVD and blu-ray -- unlike the vhs-to-dvd revolution. But even in that revolution, it really only got massive pace once players, writers, original media and blank media got to a cheap level. VCD had some longevity thanks to the time when DVDs were still "not cheap enough". Sony needs to suck it up and flood the market with cheap (I mean $100 or less) players and units for the computer (since, let's face it, it's the cheap DVD-RW drive that really got the DVD revolution going... Rated "arr!" for piracy, for sure, but hey...)


And affordable HDTVs would be desirable as well.

(Can't afford a BluRay player, a BlueRay disc *and* a new televisions set!)


I refuse to buy DRM laden product that actively inhibits fair use. Sony can pound sand.


I just got my Oct 08 issue of WIRED today in the mail and there was no Blu-Ray disc included so they must not be sending them to everyone. Bummer, since I have been a subscriber from the beginning.


I will not buy BlueRay simply because of DRM (I do not pirate either, I just don't watch). I also do not buy DVDs for the same reason. If I can't legally make a backup or content shift (for personal use) then in my opinion, the product is defective and not worth buying.

I know I'm not alone in my views....If the studios want me to buy, they must abandon DRM.


I know others will disagree, but for me prices equal to or even lower than current dvd players and discs wouldn't be enough to motivate me to pick up bluray. For one thing I've already got an existing library of dvds, and several players, for another - for me - there is just absolutely no draw for the technology itself. dvd quality video is more than sufficient, and adding a couple of more pixels just feels like a huge scam aimed purely at forcing me to re-purchase my entire library in a new format.


I just purchased a Samsung LN52A650 from Circuit City and they threw in the BDP1500 for "free". Awsome picture. My regular dvds look so good on this system, I cannot justify the price of current blu-ray discs. So, i get what i want from Netflix at no additional charge. I agree it all has to do with the price. However, it also has to with content. Some of the best movies of the last 10 years are not available on blu-ray. That sucks.


So you don't buy regular DVDs then?


Maybe consumers are smarter than corporations think. Who does not realize that in 5 years Blu-Ray will be obsolete because we'll be downloading our movies from the Internet? I'm sick of spending money continually upgrading to the latest tech. First VHS, then DVD, then Blu-Ray, and now the Internet? That's easily $50+ spent on a single title over the last 20 years.


I agree with many of the other posters. You'd have to be an idiot to buy blu-ray. It offers nothing that we don't already get from DVD, costs a lot more, and doesn't give us an upgrade path.

The problem is that technology companies like Sony think we're all made of money AND too stupid to know when we're being scammed. They envy the "planned obsolescence" of the automobile industry and are trying to duplicate their "buy a new one every five years" approach. But digital technology lasts essentially forever, and televisions last forever, so they try to change the delivery format to force us to upgrade. HD-TV and Blu-Ray are two sides of the same coin.

We customers (I hate the word "consumers") aren't blithering idiots, so we're not falling for it. And they're close to panicking.

I say, fuck 'em. Produce a product that gives us real value for our money, something that doesn't require us to ditch our significant investment in DVD technology, and MAYBE we'll bite. But this blu-ray crap? They can stick it where the sun doesn't shine.


Why should I buy a blu-ray player? I spend $110/month on cable that has about 100 HD channels. If I want to watch a movie in HD, I either use on-demand or watch it live or record it using my HD-DVR (which I upgrade every year or two when my contract expires or I move). If I want to watch a movie in HD, I'll go to a digital cinema in my area.

Using blu-ray on my computer is a joke, since my year old $300 video card isn't HDMI compatable and my two year old $400 monitor doesn't have the proper DRM'ed inputs. Its much easier to either a) watch streaming HD content (like the Olympics) or b) downloading legal HD content, which bypasses the need for blu-ray at all.

Please explain why I need to spend $300 for a player and $30-$50 a pop for a movie?


I know the selection is still limited but I can download HD movies using Rogers HD cable or XBOX live today! Why wait 5 years? I recently bought a nice 42" 1080p Viera but see no need to get BluRay unless I decide I need a PS3. If not for the PS3, BluRay would never have gone anywhere!


As an owner of an HD-DVD player and several old Betamax players I am staying away from Blu-Ray until my HD-DVD dies. It plays standard DVD and upgrades to play on my HD flat screen tv and I am happy with the result. Even if I buy a Blu-Ray player eventually to play my NetFlix rentals I would not purchase any Blu-Ray DVD's. I am hoping to download movies in the future in HD format anyway. Like CD's I think DVD technology will disappear in the near future. Since iTunes I haven't purchased a single CD and do not plan to ever purchase one again.


What everyone seem to forget, is that when DVD first came out, movies were $25-$35 as well compared to the cheap VHS counterparts. After DVD picked up enough momentum, movies and players came down in price to what VHS players were like when DVD came out. The same thing will happen to Blu-ray.

As for those that are putting down Blu-ray because the quality isn't that great compared to DVD, have you really seen Blu-ray on a proper set up. With the proper titles, DVD looks awful compared to Blu-ray. All the stuff from Pixar and Disney, most of the stuff from Sony, and movies such as iRobot, Underworld, National Treasure, etc. make Blu-ray stand out so far superior compared to DVD. Heck, even old movies like Top Gun, Total Recall, and Star Gate look quite a bit better than their DVD counterparts. DVD upscaling still doesn't compare to a Blu-ray title, even older titles like TopGun, Total Recall, even old 60's movie such as Bullit.

Face it, for those that like movies and have a home theater, Blu-ray is outsanding and a very welcome addition. Blu-ray is about as close to an absolute best film transfer that you can get. I have about 500 DVD's, and I'll probably re-buy about a fifth of those in Blu-ray for those movies that are bigger than life over the next few years. Especially once prices drop under $15 for most of the older films. I look at it this way; The movies that I really like, I'd like to have the best copy possible, so many years from now, I can pop in the disc and play it. Or better yet, 20 years from now when we storage systems in the 100's or hundreds of terabytes, then I'll transfer all my Blu-ray titles into that storage.

For the whole DRM issue. Yes we know it's there. DVD has DRM and it was cracked. Blu-ray has been fully cracked including BD+. Piracy of Blu-ray titles is going to be much less than that of DVD, just because of the huge size of a Blu-ray title. DRM isn't going to go away, we just have to hope the community is smart enough to crack it each time.


Trouble is you need your HD TV to enjoy them...Most of us aren't even at that point yet. And yes, DRM is going to be a big problem, especially trying to get computers to play your movies.

While many posters point to the internet, I wouldn't trust it for a minute. We've seen 2 major music distribution sites go under, leaving people in a lurch. If you really really like a movie, are you going to trust that some company somewhere will always have it on the internet at an affordable price forever??


One difference between the time DVDs became commonplace and now is the explosion of bittorrent traffic, other online video, Tivo's and such. Do people really want to put that kind of money in separate players, plastic disks and DRM crap when the whole business of distributing video is rapidly moving online? Sure, the image quality of the online stuff is usually worse than DVDs and much worse than Blu-Ray, but that has never stopped a new technology from spreading. The C-cassette sounded worse than vinyl, but it was more convenient and it took over the world. Videotape looked worse than film, but is was more convenient and took over the world. People still play vinyl records and go to movies, but for very large parts of the time they listen to mp3s and watch mp4s on who knows what devices. Downloading video, legally or not, is, to a lot of people, a lot more convenient than getting physical Blu-Ray disks from somewhere. Blu-Ray will probably be around, but it was born at a time when the whole disk thing is becoming a niche. Transmitting bits over networks is getting easier and faster every day, and there the video resolution and codec/image quality are not tied to some rigid standard and a format for plastic disks.


The idea of planned obsolescence is what bit the industry in the keister. DVDs were a huge upgrade over VHS and Beta. No rewinding! Less likely to be demagnetized! And because CDs emerged in the PC market, it was only natural for DVDs came to the PC as well. With DVDs on PCs, that changed the entertainment industry in a fundamental way that they've never understood and now have completely blown. Had they been willing to change their business model when bittorrent first came out, they might not be struggling today. Ever since DVDs technology came to PCs, video rentals have become obselete. Just take a look at Blockbuster's stock price over the past five years.

DRM doesn't make it any easier or provide any incentive for consumers to upgrade to new technology. Upgrade to get screwed? "Consumers" aren't dumb. The idea of having to buy the same story in VHS, DVD and Blueray over and over because there's new technology is ludicrous. With the purchase of a story once, you should never have to pay more to be able to see it on new technology, even if the media changes. A well-mastered DVD is good enough. Blueray is only good for one disc backups of television series.


It's been said by more than just me--the ridiculous price of blu-ray movies holds the format back. $25-$30 (or more) for a blu-ray movie is outrageous, especially considering most films out of Hollywood are just plain bad.


HD DVD would have won the battle based on the pricing and the easiness with which it could be manufactured but should have won for all I care as really there is not much difference between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, for once the cheaper product did not win and I am beginning to think its all because of Sony's cash power that has managed to get all the large movie distributors under it. I have a HD-DVD player and hope it will one day come back.


"As for those that are putting down Blu-ray because the quality isn't that great compared to DVD, have you really seen Blu-ray on a proper set up."

Well that's part of the problem. In order to properly "appreciate" the new HD technologies requires a lot of upgrade costs outside of just the high-priced player and the high-priced discs. There's also the issue of entrenched current technology (DVD). If I buy a DVD, I can currently play it at home, on my computer, in the car (on an in-car entertainment system), I can rip it to play on a portable device. With blu-ray, now I have to replace all the hardware to do the same thing (and some things aren't possible because of unavailable hardware or because of DRM.) The DVD was a revolution from the VCR because 1) longevity of the media (if you bought it for your collection, then it was always part of your collection, no degradation of the media itself like tape, 2) picture and audio quality (AC 5.1 sound, Prologic pretty much standard) and most importantly 3) direct plug and play substitution (you unplugged your VCR, plugged in the DVD in it's place and instantly reaped 90% of the benefits of the new format.) Just isn't the case with blu-ray.


why not try the "Gillette way"?
Give Away the razor and Sell the blades.
works with cellphones, too.


Until I see WalMart selling Blu-Ray DVDs in their $5 bin, I ain't buying any. I think movies on DVD priced at $9.99 or less are good deals. Blu-Ray hasn't gotten there yet. No $9.99 or less Blu-Ray no player or discs for me.


I agree, it was bad enough that Sony used misleading ads to promote Blu-Ray and to attack HD DVD. That is called false advertising. DRM is another reason why people should not sink there hard earned cash into Blu-Ray. If it wasn’t for Sony buying up the majority of movies to artificially inflate Blu-Ray sales, HD DVD would have beat them out. Though I feel Toshiba wasn’t that aggressive with HD DVD as they should have been.
Blu-Ray equals “Extremely” Slow Movie Load Times, DRM Garbage, Discs are rotting, they scratch Easy, Profile Plagued confusing the public with 3 incompatible profiles, Still Lacks Finished Specifications, Rip-Off prices for movies and players, and so on.


That is a very misleading statement for an article with a very misleading title.

The actual content of the article indicates there is plenty of room for growth in the format to handle greater resolutions down the road. The real issue of the article is whether optical disc technology will see any major new formats following Blu-ray or will the laws of physics require a new storage medium to meet growing capacity demand.


It's not just the DRM it's the region coding. I buy my DVD discs off Amazon because they are waay cheaper than retail in this country, the range is bigger, and the release window is better. Pretty much all DVD players here are sold zone free (even from the official Sony dealer) as they are effectively unsaleable otherwise. However, Blu-ray players are zoned, and no retailer will sell a de-zoned one or a North American zoned one. I was called a "pirate" and practically physically thrown out of the Sony Style dealership when I went in and asked how much extra would I have to pay for a Zone A player. (Note - I am not a pirate, if I was I would download the movies with no zoning issues, I want to buy real discs from a bona fide retailer. It is a sad day when the pirated product is not only not worse than the legitimate stuff - it is actually better!). If they don't want to sell me a useful product, and then sell me movies, then fine - NO SALE.


Like a lot of people I bet on HD-DVD as it was cheaper and equal quality to Blu-Ray and I could not see how it would succeed. As usual people are more impressed with "bigger is better" even though HD-DVD could use its smaller disk space to hold technically superior audio and the same quality video thanks to the better compression techniques used.

I think Toshiba could see that there was no point battling with Sony as within a short time frame all DVD formats will be dead as people either download from the internet or use USB sticks to hold movies. I already have a 16GB USB stick and there will be 100GB sticks available soon, so I can see a situation where you take your 100GB Stick to the rental store, plug it into the Stores rental machine which removes your last video from the stick and writes the one (or two) you are hiring today and copies them onto your stick, away you go, no noisy spinning disks and you can play back on an X-Box or Home Theatre PC or normal desktop PC.

If they would just wise up and get rid of DRM, it makes everything more expensive (all this HDMI pass through crap so that every bit of your system has to be HDMI compliant is probably why most folk think Blu-Ray isn't worth it because they are watching their movies in reduced mode bacause some part of the system isn't HDMI capable). Talk about shoot yourselves in the foot!!

I think both the movie and audio industries should encode a serial number into the individual film or music track that can be traced back to who bought that particular film or audio track, Then if it starts being copied around the internet the person who that movie or track was sold to can be identified and prosecuted. Leave the DRM out so that everyone can see the benefit of the higher definition and stop assuming that we will all copy tracks/movies until proven guilty!

People will cheat if you keep prices artificially high and piss them off by putting DRM into it to try and stop them. In fact the more you do to stop it, there are people who will see that act as reason enough to go out of their way to hack into it and copy it around ilegally. You are just making the challenge more appealing to them.

Net result, the ilegal folk are all watchong and listening to this DRM stuff without any problems as they know how to crack it and remove it, and the honest law abiding customers who just want to watch a movie and aren't technical are watching it and thinking this is really not worth buying as it looks worse than the old format DVD.

WAKE UP BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!!!


All of you who are saying regular dvd/upscaling is as or good enough for viewing are in SERIOUS denial.
NOTHING compares to blu ray.
no deals mr bond.


you don't own a blu ray system,THATS obvious.


Check out the Sony Electronics Blog. A recent post talks about why Sony thinks Blu-ray is here to stay, despite contrary reports.
~Jennifer

Jennifer Peterson
Sony Electronics Blog Moderator
Sony Electronics
www.Sony.com/ElectronicsBlog


Check out the Sony Electronics Blog. A recent post talks about why Sony thinks Blu-ray is here to stay, despite contrary reports.
~Jennifer

Jennifer Peterson
Sony Electronics Blog Moderator
Sony Electronics
www.Sony.com/ElectronicsBlog


BLUE -RAY IS TOP , DVD IS CRAP


I think the biggest problem with blu ray is they release titles that wont play due to software/firmware issues. I spent 2000 plus on my tv and player and I still buy a disc that wont play. They discs are sold without any warning to the consumer, visible on the outside of the packaging, about possible issues with recent releases. And once the product is in the customers hands its too late. I ve gotten several reimbursments from target, best buy and blockbuster already. Settle the playback issues already. everyone I work with keeps hearing my horror stories and arent buying players.


BluRay always was going to be a much harder "sell" to the masses than the Sony bosses had you believe.
Those young excutives and managers at Sony only tend to look at the world from their eyes rather than the mass consumer.
Unlike the highly paid folks at Sony, most consumers simply don't have the bucks or the inclination to buy a new Blu Ray player,and a new HD capable TV, along with Blu Ray discs merely to gain a better picture quality that only becomes truely noticable on a 40+ inch TV screen in normal living rooms.

Now that the global financial meltdown, and economic depression is going to filter into manufacturing firms, and more people lose , and money goes less far,people lose money on shares, and people are worried about their savings, one of the last things that the mass market will be looking to spend its hard earn cash on is Blu Ray.
Sorry Sony yet another format doomed from the start.
Next time spend some money on market research..... you might learn something!


well put i agree 100%


well the reason that the charge so much for movies now days is because of the time that is takes to be shipped to the United States and also all of the steps they have to go through to make the movie and besides some of the money that stores get from people buying movies it goes to the people who were involved with the movie so thats why movies are so high in price these days.


well it might be costing sony a shit load of money but you have to think, their just trying to get more people to be know of their product which happens to be blue ray disc's. well personally i dont think that it's a bad sign because their just trying to advertise their product so that they can be successfull in their effurts of trying to advertise their product. and if there is anybody out there that doesnt agree with me and wants to tell me there opionon email me at donandjamayne@yahoo.com so if any one disagress with me just tell them to email me by bitches


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