The Industry Standard - Prediction - Comments

With no economic report out

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:31:36 -0800

With no economic report out tomorrow and auto bail out vote pushed to December, tomorrow will depend on pressure from Asia and Europe trading day and potential bargain shoppers (if they have guts). Otherwise, Monday economic reports on existing home sales and housing price index will continue to put downward pressure. With an intraday criteria, this could very well happen as early as at open tomorrow or sometime Monday.

Closed on November 20 @

Eric Hill812251 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:17:41 -0800

Closed on November 20 @ 7,552.29 (–444.99).

This prediction only requires the Dow to drop 266 more points to come true. Considering we have one more week to go - shoot, guys, this could happen tomorrow at this rate.

GOOG may actually close

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:01:23 -0800

GOOG may actually close below 260 !!!!!

From

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:00:22 -0800

From http://seekingalpha.com/article/107094-blockbuster-inc-q3-2008-earnings-...

We have two stores now in pilot testing primarily again to gage consumer response. Second, we continue to explore the development of at home or living room solutions and in time for the holiday season we will be launching a set-top box that will be able to deliver Blockbuster VOD movie offerings powered by our movie link service. Our primary objective again in this arena is to measure consumer response to this offering.

On the subscription side, we have entertained various opportunities to build the subscription library but we have not yet gone down that path because first we want to have improved delivery mechanisms. Let’s face it, not a lot of people are downloading movies on their PC today and until we have a commercially viable set-top box which we think is some distance down the road, we’re not sure how many months or years it will take to have a commercially viable solution for the at home offering.

It would seem that any set top box will be part of a pilot for this holiday season using its MovieLink assets. A much wider release is more likely AFTER this holiday season.

@TIS, will pre-Dec 1 release for pilot be considered meeting judgment criteria? IMO, a prediction such as this should be for a wide distribution rather than a pilot.

DJIA is freefalling ... just

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 12:43:29 -0800

DJIA is freefalling ... just dipped below 7600

Correct, for this prediction

Garrick Hileman932530 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 12:41:24 -0800

Correct, for this prediction to come true there would have to be new money put up from Congress, which is what the automakers are seeking. Changing the terms or use of the previously approved money would not equal a favorable judgment to this prediction.

How will this translate to

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 12:21:50 -0800

How will this translate to the Case-Schiller index? Regardless, it is a sign of bottoming if not recovery.

@Eric, how will TIS treat

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 12:03:39 -0800

@Eric, how will TIS treat the scenario where the "plan" is a redirect of money previously approved?

From http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/20/bail-out-general-motors-f...

The compromise would redirect money approved last month to help the industry remodel its factories to produce more fuel-efficient cars, turning the "big three" of Detroit back from the brink of bankruptcy. All interest and repayments on the loan would go towards replenishing the clean-vehicles fund by next year.

IMO, the criteria was "new federal assistance beyond what was approved previously". The "redirect" or "redefinition" is NOT new.

Now this is starting to seem

Eric Hill812251 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:49:10 -0800

Now this is starting to seem more likely. Congress wants some sort of "plan" before they hand over cash. Sounds like an excuse. . .

GOOG may close today BELOW

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:43:37 -0800

GOOG may close today BELOW 270 !!

As it turns out, the change

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:42:03 -0800

As it turns out, the change started in 2007 and continues in 2008. The latest numbers from 2008 confirms that the 2007 decisions is not a fluke occurrence but is now indeed the trend (aka "the shift"). Applicable IAB reports had been submitted to TIS for judgment.

mobclix has made a

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:36:43 -0800

mobclix has made a correction to its metric. It is now standing around 8900.

From

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 10:54:10 -0800

From http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081119&content_id=3685525&vkey...

"On Monday, news broke that Cuban was targeted in a civil proceeding by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is looking into insider trading regarding the sale of personal stock. One MLB owner said on Wednesday that Cuban's bid for the Cubs would go on the back burner for the time being until the SEC issue is resolved."

Also, according to SI.com (picked up by http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/78171) , it seems Cuban is OUT of the running as the bid is not considered serious enough. According to reports, only 4 serious bids are in consideration at this time.

I saw that. This would seem

Eric Hill812251 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 09:46:10 -0800

I saw that. This would seem to put a lot more pressure on Psystar surviving, wouldn't you think?

Not sure if it will meet the rules of this prediction, but (like the Jerry Yang prediction which closed earlier than the event outcome) may ultimately come true.

As I type this, only a 576

Eric Hill812251 — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 09:13:46 -0800

As I type this, only a 576 point difference for this prediction to come true in the next few days. Will the Thanksgiving holiday stop this from coming true? At this point, I don't know what to think. Just a couple of weeks ago everyone was wringing their hands over inflation worries.

Now the economy seems to be so shaky, we're dealing with DEflation. Not good.